Every tool ever created replaced some task that people previously did as a part of their job. Forget about AI – just regular tools are well known for task replacement.

But what happens to jobs and careers?

They change, morph, and sometimes disappear.

To understand how AI will affect programmers, let’s take a step back and analyze the big picture.

Programmers – Past

If we take a look at programmers some 70 years ago and compare them to now, there is almost no resemblance.

Programmers now have no idea how to code on a punched card, and programmers then have no idea what a browser is.

One must wonder, are those even the same jobs (considering the differences)?

If we define a job as a set of tasks, then almost no task that existed 70 years ago as a part of programming exists today. So we could say that the “original version” of the programming job doesn’t exist at all anymore.

It was completely replaced by better tools.

On the other hand, if we accept task change (removing one and adding another type of task) as a natural lifecycle of a job – then programming was not affected at all by these tools.

Programmers – Future

And the same is going to happen with AI.

Programmers’ tasks are going to change (perhaps significantly due to AI). But as a result:

  • They will become even more productive
  • The cost of creating digital products will fall even further
  • And this will lead to even more projects getting started
  • Which will paradoxically result in an even bigger demand for programmers

Don’t believe me?

Then answer me this…

Since working on punched cards, programmers increased their productivity by at least 100-fold.

Are there fewer programmers today than there were 70 years ago?

Something to think about…